POLLS – Obama Ahead by 2 …

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Obama ahead by 2 points. Albeit this is statistically insignificant being that it’s within the margin of error, the Rasmussen polls show Obama steadily edging up on Clinton, particularly since his fundraising disclosure.   Here’s Rasmussen on that:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Illinois Senator Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant two point advantage over the former First Lady. It’s Obama 32% Clinton 30%. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third with support holding steady at 17%. No other candidate tops 3%. The survey was conducted April 23-26, 2007 meaning that the overwhelming majority of the interviews were completed before last Thursday’s debate in South Carolina. The impact of the debate will be measured in polling conducted this week.

Note: this is right before the debate, so we’re curious to see these numbers in the wake of an o.k. performance by Obama.  Obama maintained in South Carolina, but the consensus is that Clinton was stronger, with Obama stumbling lightly and – at times – getting caught in the web of his pontification.  Still, this was his first ever Presidential debate, up against more than several candidates who’ve done this before. Did he look Presidential?  Let’s see what the polls say about that. 

Imus, Black Folks & Free Speech Issues …

There are many angles to weave on this Imus episode, so – for the moment, we’ll pick one. 

Since Don Imus’ ”nappy-headed” end-of-the-old-boy macaca moment, there are prominent civil rights activists on moral soap-boxes (namely Sharpton), who insist this should lead to greater regulation of such speech by the Federal Communications Commission.  “Accountability” is a word used loosely by some in describing a solution to the problem of noxious “shock jocks” and their verbal filth. 

We strongly disagree with the notion that the FCC should re-examine and, therefore, begin strictly regulation types of speech on radio or any other broadcast medium for that matter.  Simply put, listeners always have the choice of tuning out if they hear something they don’t like or disagree with – and, that can transalte into a choice powered by the pocket book since those lost listeners won’t be buying anything promoted on that show.  A slippery slope is created where, suddenly, Imus’ rants aren’t the only forms of speech being policed.  The beauty of the First Amendment is that it does create a scenario of social consequences for the individual or group guilty of using toxic language, rather than government dictating what should and what should not be said.  The marketplace, of course, will ultimately determine whether or not someone stays on the air as – just as in the case of Imus – advertisers realize a certain demographic of offended people spend billions of dollars on consumer goods. 

Regulating speech is a recipe for Constitutional erosion and backlash. 

Gonzales in DOJ to stay …

While the level of punditry and ideologue sniping over the Alberto Gonzales DOJ show no signs of waning, the most interesting aspect of this episode is that Gonzales’ job still remains intact, even after a round of damaging hearings.  With Iraq front funding looming as the main course, Congress is enjoying its Spring break with little reference as of late being made to the wily ”Gonzo.” 

This comes as no surprise, despite numerous calls for a forced resignation.  In fact, it was said in an episode of Blackpolicy.org’s “Sunday Nite Talk” about two weeks ago that Gonzales would not be leaving anytime soon for a few reasons:

1) The obstinate will of President Bush himself who refuses to accept any notion that his inner circle of Texas friends are corrupt.  Even as GOP leaders call for a Gonzales resignation, Bush remains rather loyal. 

2) Battles over Iraq war funding and the situation in the Persian Gulf region keep Members of Congress awfully distracted.

3) And is there any use to replacing the Attorney General with less than two years left?  Gonzales, given his close personal connection to the President, is probably the best man to continue pushing forth what former AG John Ashcroft started, hence the complete conservative transformation of the DOJ. 

Continuous stonewalling on the part of the Administration probably keeps the issue burning in the Congressional hearing rooms, but the political drama and innuendo just isn’t capturing the attention of an American public more concerned with Iraq, matters of the purse and whether Sanjaya will be in the top two on American Idol.    

Iran frees Britons – Why is everybody surprised?

Polling numbers from Britain last week showed only 7% of Brits favoring military action against Iran over the 15 detained British sailors.  Only 7%.  In this instance – and in stark contrast to American attitudes – cooler heads prevailed.  British public opinion, with their steamy tabloids and hot-headed weekly parliamentary “Prime Minister’s Questions” sessions, is taken very seriously by UK officials who are never quick to dismiss elections as mere “polls” (an offensive assertion made by Republicans – namely Vice President Cheney – who continue mocking 2006 election results).

In addition, Prime Minister Tony Blair is scheduled to step down in May, thus no national stomach in Britain for a new war in the midst of a major government transition.  We also suspect that Brits, known for their pride and historic haughtiness, did not take kindly to the notion that the Bush Administration may have been using this latest crisis and the British military as a proxy for sudden war with Iran.  Enter a quick assignment of the U.S.S. Nimitz carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf.  Fool us once, said the Brits, but fool us twice … diplomacy was destined to prevail in this episode.  Britain comes out clean and unscathed; Iran looks friendly.   

‘08 – Obama’s Lootpack on Clinton’s Heels …

Recent first quarter fundraising results for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders may as well put Obama at first place.  Why?  Because he’s been able to amass in a matter of months – several, mind you – what the rest have taken years to muster.  In a somewhat quietly bungled effort to offset the Obama numbers, the Clinton camp snatched an additional $10 million from her Senate campaign coffers, just so she could say she was now at $36 million for the 1st quarter, a comfortable $10 mill ahead of her earnest primary rival. 

Obama’s lootpack now smokes heavier than the cigarette packs he quit a few months ago.  This also reveals a certain fundraising maturity for African American candidates that has never been as prominent as before, since raising dollars for political campaigns has been a major obstacle for Black statewide, federal and Presidential contenders.  We predict that many in the Black political elite (the “civil rights” old guard) who have offered only cool resentment towards Obama’s quick ascent, will soon offer endorsements and job inquiries.   It was never a question of the Clinton’s having a “Blacker” agenda than Obama – it’s always about the money in politics, friends.  Many African American politicos assumed Obama could never rival Clinton in fundraising, hence putting their bets on Hillary.  A major shift in that thinking is about to occur now.   Obama should expect multiple calls and lunch overtures from Sharpton and others.