How Clinton Played Obama & What’s Ahead …

Obama got punk’d last night.  There’s no way to spin it, no way to parse words.  He got punk’d and he got played, while getting a royal slapping.  He allowed Clinton to best him and pull him down from his iconic status.  She framed his as just another politician, dogging him to the point where he didn’t look as though he walked on water anymore.  Using a very volatile mix of racial, religious and generational code, plugged into the “experience” issue, she dominated the discussion. 

The media also played us, too. She was down, but she was never out. She was simply playing possum, looking limp as a way to both fool Obama while getting sympathy from White female voters who love their girl so.  We thought it strange that while she was so behind and he looking inevitable, she managed to get more media play than he did over the past couple of weeks.  As they say: any media is good media.  It worked.

On the Republican side, McCain gets a rare political double paly.  He gets the nomination and he gets to watch the Democratic race on the sidelines since it will be in flux from six weeks to the middle of june.  So, now he’s got betwee4n 7-14 weeks to craft his message and image without getting hit by the Democratic nominee becase there isn’t one. He also has the opportunity to shore up his base, because Clinton and Obama will have to continue veering to the left in an effort to attract Democratic primary voters.

Clinton set the mark and then hit it since she got 3 ourt of 4.  There was a confluence of factors helping her – a tipping point of events. From the infamous Farrakhan question and “3am ad” to the strangely timed photo of Obama in Somali garb to the reports about Obama’s economic advisor meeting with the Canadian embassy on NAFTA – these were all carefully laced with a volatile mix of racial, religious and protectionist code that tapped into the insecurities of working class white voters and white female security moms.  

She won at least the primary, with the caucus - as of press time – finding him still leading.  The problem for her is delegate math: he’s still ahead in delegates and she can’t catch him unless she wins every single contest to follow with a 65% – 35% margin. 

The problem for Sen. Obama at this stage is perception and momentum. For one, she was successful in playing him: she made him look more like a politician than the movement he had become.  She deflated his iconic status to a degree.  So, he has no choice but to win Wyoming and Mississippi.  He then has 6 weeks to turn Pennsylvania into Iowa.  

Obama has a hard choice to make.  He must decide if he, too, can sling some mud – the trick is how he does that without getting dirty. He has to walk his talk and hang tight on the the line of this “new politics” approach he’s been pushing, the new school of thought where you are above the fray and focus on the issues without getting bogged down in petty campaign tricks. But, how does he attack a woman?  And how does he do it as a Black man attacking a White woman?  It will be a very compelling balancing act he’ll have to play.

Still, Obama has two points in his favor.  One: The delegate math Two: when he has lots of time – like the next 7 weeks – to go into a state and campaign, he typically does well in persuading voters to go his way.  Over the next 7 weeks, he’ll need to touch voters; he does well in town hall formats. 

In Ohio, he lost because of machine politics,  Entrenched, labor-dominated, Democratic party machines that have been around for years can roll out and place pressure on folks and precincts. It’s hard to crack that.  He’s going to have to figure out how to do that in a city like Philadelphia; he has to find a way to integrate himself into the city machine while at the same time attracting the Philly voter that is traditionally suspicious of that machine. 

Clinton, on the other hand, has to be very careful not to get too arrogant in the wake of these wins.  She’s got a long way to go still and if she becomes too dismissive and arrogant, she’ll risk turning off many Pennsylvania voters. 

The larger political picture finds Democrats struggling to figure this out since McCain has free reign between March 5th to June 3rd. They can’t allow him that much time.  So, now the party has to re-examine this; they need a nominee soon before they lose what’s seen as their best shot.