PA Post-mortem …

Even though Sen. Clinton’s win is not the biggest win considering how far ahead she was only a month ago, it’s still a win and the continuation of a peculiar losing streak for Obama. But, he can still claim that he did way better than expected – you can still argue this either way. It could’ve been much worse for Obama, particularly in a state that was tailor-made for Clinton.

It’s a win in a large state that is considered a major battleground during the general election. Therefore, what matters at this stage is how much distance she can go despite being broke compared to the campaign financing juggernaut that is Sen. Obama. It’s obvious that he’s playing a game of attrition against Clinton, prompting her to spend more money than she has and extending her resources beyond what she’s able to sustain.

But, clearly, Obama has a major problem going into Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th. He and his supporters have much reason to worry when looking at the metrics of the situation. He had money to outspend her 3-to-1; he had more troops on the ground to canvass; he was clearly closing the gap in the polls. He still didn’t do as well as expected in places like Philadelphia, where you have a huge African American voting base. And he is still faced with this peculiar trend of undecided voters who, in the case of major states like New Hampshire, California, Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, constantly break for Clinton on the very eve of each primary. What does that say? Are those undecideds primarily White voters who are unwilling to admit to pollsters that, ultimately, they just can’t see themselves voting for an African American as President? There are signs of that infamous “Bradley Effect” embedded within the undecided demographic. There are also indications from exit polling data that a majority of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania appear more comfortable with the notion of Clinton as their nominee than they do Obama.

The problem is now perception for Obama. He has to regain the momentum of perception; he has to show an ability to win the big states.

Still, Clinton’s negatives and the perception that she is not trustworthy are clearly hurting her. Obama was able to, in very rapid fashion, aggressively close the polling gap through criss-crossing the state and providing voters in that state with the opportunity to know him better. That shouldn’t have happened.

That said, White women, as usual, carried Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. White women have saved Sen. Clinton time and time again, and they are the force to be reckoned with in the Democratic primary. That’s problematic for Obama should he become the nominee. He may not be faced with the same negatives in polling data that Clinton is faced with, but he is faced with the specter of racialized and gender-based decision making at the voting booth. In this respect, he has to win Indiana in order to regain control of the perception game.